Do Oil Windfalls Improve Living Standards? Evidence from Brazil

We use variation in oil output among Brazilian municipalities to investigate the effects of resource windfalls. We find muted effects of oil through market channels: offshore oil has no effect on municipal non-oil GDP or its composition, while onshore oil has only modest effects on non-oil GDP composition. However, oil abundance causes municipal revenues and reported spending on a range of budgetary items to increase, mainly as a result of royalties paid by Petrobras. Nevertheless, surveybased measures of social transfers, public good provision, infrastructure, and household income increase less (if at all) than one might expect given the increase in reported spending. To explain why oil windfalls contribute little to local living standards, we use data from the Brazilian media and federal police to document that very large oil output increases alleged instances of illegal activities associated with mayors.Brazil, corruption, Dutch disease, fiscal windfalls, natural resources and oil

The shrinking middle

Guy Michaels and colleagues show how new technologies are polarising the labour market, with the middle-skilled losing out mos

Freedom Fries

Do firms choose inputs that minimize their cost of production, ignoring the attitudes of their owners and employees? We examine this question using an episode of worsening relations between the US and France: from February 2002 to March 2003, France's favorability rating in US public opinion polls fell from 83 percent to 35 percent. Very negative attitudes towards France became common even among college educated Americans with high levels of income, so they were likely prevalent among managers. Using data from 1999-2005, we find that the worsening relations reduced US imports from France by about 15 percent and US exports to France by about 8 percent, compared to other Eurozone or OECD countries. This decline was due in large part to a fall in France's share of the quantity of inputs traded between the Eurozone and the US; this decline is significant even after we control for changes in the product composition of trade flows. We also find that the decline in trade w as accompanied by a similar drop in both business trips and tourist visitations of US residents to France compared to Western Europe. Taken together, our findings suggest that competition cannot eliminate the effect of attitudes on firms' choice of inputs.Trade, Discrimination

Do Giant Oilfield Discoveries Fuel Internal Armed Conflicts?

We use new data to examine the effects of giant oilfield discoveries around the world since 1946. On average, these discoveries increase per capita oil production and oil exports by up to 50 percent. But these giant oilfield discoveries also have a dark side: they increase the incidence of internal armed conflict by about 5-8 percentage points. This increased incidence of conflict due to giant oilfield discoveries is especially high for countries that had already experienced armed conflicts or coups in the decade prior to discovery.Natural resources, resource curse, petroleum, armed conflict, civil war

Challenges for research on resource-rich economies

The scope for economic research on resource-rich countries has widened considerably over the past two decades. While examination of market-based channels mechanisms (such as spending effects and exchange-rate appreciation) and resource price volatility are still important, other issues are coming to the forefront. These include the risk of depletion or technological changes that may reduce demand for natural resources or production factors, issues related to migration and inequality, and concerns regarding the use or misuse of revenues from natural resources and power struggles over them. Concerns about the effects of resource-abundance also extend beyond national borders, covering such diverse topics as conflicts over the control of resources and their possible contribution to climate change. I argue that progress in understanding these issues is constrained by the shortcomings of cross-country analysis as a way to model counterfactual scenarios and by the paucity of good data. The paper outlines specific gaps in the literature, pointing the way for future research on resource-rich economies in general and on the Gulf states in particular

Urbanisation and Structural Transformation

This paper presents new evidence on urbanization using sub-county data for the United States from 1880-2000 and municipality data for Brazil from 1970-2000. We show that the two central stylized features of population growth for cities - Gibrat's Law and a stable population distribution - are strongly rejected when both rural and urban areas are considered. Population growth exhibits a U-shaped relationship with initial population density, and only becomes uncorrelated with initial population density at the high densities found in predominantly urban areas. We provide evidence that the explanation for these patterns lies in different employment growth dynamics in the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors and the process of structural transformation away from the agricultural sector.urbanisation, economic development, urban population, rural population

The Effect of Trade on the Demand for Skill - Evidence from the Interstate Highway System

Since changes in trade openness are typically confounded with other factors, it has been difficult to identify the labor market consequences of increased international trade. The advent of the United States Interstate Highway System provides a unique policy experiment, which I use to identify the effect of reducing trade barriers on the relative demand for skilled labor. The Interstate Highway System was designed to connect major metropolitan areas, to serve national defence and to connect the United States to Canada and Mexico. As a consequence - though not an objective - many rural counties were also connected to the highway system. I find that these counties experienced an increase in trade-related activities, such as trucking and retail sales, by 7-10 percentage points per capita. Most significantly, by increasing trade the highways raised the relative demand for skilled manufacturing workers in counties with a high endowment of human capital and reduced it elsewhere, consistent with the predictions of the Heckscher-Ohlin model.Skill Premium, Trade, Highways

The Division of Labor, Coordination, and the Demand for Information Processing

Since Adam Smith's time, the division of labor in production has increased significantly, while information processing has become an important part of work. This paper examines whether the need to coordinate an increasingly complex division of labor has raised the demand for clerical office workers, who process information that is used to coordinate production. In order to examine this question empirically, I introduce a measure of the complexity of an industry's division of labor that uses the Herfindahl index of occupations it employs, excluding clerks and managers. Using US data I find that throughout the 20th century more complex industries employed relatively more clerks, and recent Mexican data shows a similar relationship. The relative complexity of industries is persistent over time and correlated across these two countries. I further document the relationship between complexity and the employment of clerks using an early information technology (IT) revolution that took place around 1900, when telephones, typewriters, and improved filing techniques were introduced. This IT revolution raised the demand for clerks in all manufacturing industries, but significantly more so in industries with a more complex division of labor. Interestingly, recent reductions in the price of IT have enabled firms to substitute computers for clerks, and I find that more complex industries have substituted clerks more rapidly.information processing, division of labor, technological change, organization of production

Has ICT Polarized Skill Demand? Evidence from Eleven Countries over 25 Years

OECD labor markets have become more "polarized" with employment in the middle of the skill distribution falling relative to the top and (in recent years) also the bottom of the skill distribution. We test the hypothesis of Autor, Levy, and Murnane (2003) that this is partly due to information and communication technologies (ICT) complementing the analytical tasks primarily performed by highly educated workers and substituting for routine tasks generally performed by middle educated workers (with little effect on low educated workers performing manual non-routine tasks). Using industry level data on the US, Japan, and nine European countries 1980-2004 we find evidence consistent with ICT-based polarization. Industries with faster growth of ICT had greater increases in relative demand for high educated workers and bigger falls in relative demand for middle educated workers. Trade openness is also associated with polarization, but this is not robust to controls for technology (like R&D). Technologies can account for up to a quarter of the growth in demand for the college educated in the quarter century since 1980.Technology, trade, skill demand, wage inequality

The shrinking middle

Guy Michaels and colleagues show how new technologies are polarising the labour market, with the middle-skilled losing out mostproductivity, technology